September 2025 Newsletter
15 Weeks Down: Golden Week Ahead, Rates Still Sliding
Container rates keep easing. Drewry’s World Container Index fell 8% to $1,761/40’, the 15th straight weekly drop. Transpacific and Asia–Europe both slipped: Shanghai–LA $2,311 (-10%), Shanghai–NY $3,278 (-8%), Shanghai–Rotterdam $1,735 (-9%), Shanghai–Genoa $1,990 (-7%).
GRIs/blank sailings have faded and carriers are trimming capacity ahead of China’s Golden Week, with Drewry expecting weaker supply–demand and further spot-rate contraction in coming quarters.
For U.S. importers of AU/NZ beef, veal and lamb and EU pork, this is a booking window: pull forward Q4 vessels, push NVOs for sharper reefer quotes, and refresh landed costs for bids. Hedge by splitting routings USWC/USEC, secure cold storage and USDA reinspection slots, and reference WCI in negotiations to extend price validity and lock priority space and equipment.
Source: Drewry UKl September 25
New Season Lamb: Delayed Flush, Tight Supply
Australian new season lamb prices have surged to an average 1,227¢/kg cwt, with heavy young lambs fetching up to $400/head in Bendigo. Scarcity is the driver: old-season lambs have largely exited and the new-season flush is delayed. South Australia faces drought-constrained supply after early turnoff, while Victoria—normally the September engine—has yardings 68% below the five-year average; better conditions may encourage producers to add weight, delaying SA/Vic flow.
NSW kicked off strong in August but supply eased through September, pointing to a smaller spring run. Processors are absorbing up to 70% of new-season lambs to keep plants operating; some have reduced shifts or brought forward maintenance to avoid chasing rising stock. This points to a shift from traditional seasonal patterns: delayed supply, elevated competition, and throughput risk. For U.S. buyers, expect firmer AU offers and uneven volumes; pre-commit Q4–Q1 racks/shanks, confirm plant schedules, and build lead-time buffers and cold-storage slots early.
Source: Meat & Livestock Austalia l September 19
ASF Flare-Up: Croatia Culls 12,000 Pigs
Croatia ordered the cull of nearly 12,000 pigs after African swine fever hit multiple farms in Osijek-Baranja, including a 10,000-head unit in Sokolovac. Inspectors found biosecurity lapses at 104 of 400 farms.
Authorities tightened controls, coordinating police, vets and officials; transport and borders with Serbia and Bosnia are checked, and hunters were told to eradicate wild boar.
Since 2023 Croatia has lost pig stock equal to 5% of its herd. For U.S. buyers of EU pork: expect localized supply tightness and paperwork delays; verify plant eligibility and zone status on pack date, add transit buffers, and keep alternates ready.
Source: Reuters l September 23
Lamb Pastrami & Prime Rib Hit the Deli Case
Aussie Select—the nation’s first fully cooked lamb charcuterie brand— launches at Wegmans on Oct 6 with two sliced-at-the-deli items: Lamb Prime Rib and Lamb Pastrami. Made in the U.S. from Australian pasture-raised lamb, both are nitrate/nitrite-free and positioned for sandwiches, grazing boards, and prepared foods.
With retail charcuterie posting double-digit growth and lamb trial rising among younger, adventurous shoppers, this gives retail and foodservice buyers a scalable entry point for lamb outside the raw case. For programs and LTOs: plan Q4 board sets and premium sandwich builds.
Source: Meat + Poultry l September 29
AFN Buys Open Range Beef, Expands U.S. Grass-Fed Capacity
American Farmers Network (AFN) acquired Nebraska-based processor Open Range Beef (ORB), expanding AFN’s vertically integrated capacity for grass-fed and organic beef across
ranching, harvest, fabrication, further processing and national distribution.
The combined platform employs 500+ across two USDA plants, adding throughput, shift flexibility and geographic diversification to improve fill rates, lead times and audit readiness while lowering import exposure. ORB will keep staff, specs and customer contacts during a phased integration and operate as “Open Range Beef, an AFN company.
Source: PR Newswire l September 16
Schnucks Buys Festival Foods—164-Store Midwest Platform
St. Louis–based Schnuck Markets will acquire Wisconsin’s Skogen’s Festival Foods and Hometown Grocers (including ESOP shares), creating the 1939 Group and expanding to 164 stores across MO, IL, IN, and WI. The deal, expected to close in October pending approvals, adds 51 Wisconsin stores (42 Festival plus nine Hometown banners).
Brands will retain local banners and separate HQs, operating as sister companies with shared support. Post-close, Todd Schnuck will lead 1939 Group and oversee 19,000+ associates. Consolidation increases Midwest scale for deli/center-store/meat programs and unified sourcing; maintain relationships with existing banners while preparing for centralized negotiations.
Source: Meat + Poultry l September 17
China: Provisional Tariffs Hit EU Pork
China will levy provisional anti-dumping duties of 15.6%–62.4% on EU pork and by-products starting Sept 10, citing preliminary findings that EU product is being dumped and harms Chinese producers. The move—seen amid the EU’s tariffs on Chinese EVs—intensifies Beijing-Brussels trade tensions; the probe runs through December.
Expect EU exporters (notably Spain, Denmark, Netherlands) to redirect volumes, including variety meats, into alternate markets, pressuring prices and freight lanes. For U.S. buyers, watch for short- term offer upticks from EU suppliers, tighter China demand, and shifting by-product spreads; keep US/CA/MX alternates warm and verify EU plant/zoning status before booking.
Source: FoodMarket l September 8
Value-Added Seafood: Dot Foods Deal Boosts Availability
Value-added seafood is a practical inflation play for retailers: trade up baskets, reduce prep, and widen household trial. Beaver Street Fisheries positions value-added as a full solution—responsibly sourced inputs, strict QA, smaller MOQs, and customizable proprietary blends with culinary/R&D support from concept to commercialization.
Assortment spans crab cakes, crab-stuffed finfish, breaded shrimp/clams/scallops/calamari, on-trend seafood boils, and convenience-led- led items (grab-and-go shrimp/surimi cocktails, pre-seasoned fully cooked salmon portions, single-serve meals). A July partnership with Dot Foods, North America’s largest redistributor, expands reach, streamlines LTL, and improves in- stock across a broader footprint.
Source: Supermarket Perimeter l September 17
NZ Red Meat: High Prices, Tight Supply, Cautious Outlook
Beef + Lamb New Zealand’s 2025–26 New Season Outlook projects record-high red meat values holding through the coming year on tight global supply. Despite lower export volumes, 2024–25 earnings +$1.4B to $10.5B; 2025–26 expected to ease only ~0.5%. Supportive factors: strong U.S. demand absorbing NZ/AU beef, tighter Australian sheep exports late 2025, and solid EU/UK pull.
Farm profits rebounded from $18,914 (’23–24) to $138,600 (’24–25) and are seen rising to $166,500 (’25–26). Headwinds: a 15% U.S. tariff risk that could strip ~$500M/season, potential higher U.S. lamb tariffs, China’s beef safeguard probe, a firmer NZD, and stock losses from afforestation (B+LNZ estimates a $36B export hit by 2050 if trends persist). Buyer take: assume firm NZ lamb/beef; lock cover, watch tariff headlines and FX.
Source: Beef+Lamb NZ l September 9
